2018 NFL MVP Odds – Rodgers, Brady, Wentz Lead the Way

aaron-rodgersTom Brady captured his third-career MVP award last season. The 41-year-old defied time by passing for 4,577 yards, 32 touchdowns, and a 66.3% completion rate. He also led the New England Patriots to their second-straight Super Bowl appearance.

Brady was aided by key injuries to other potential MVP candidates. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers played in just seven games, suffering a season-ending collarbone injury.

Many considered Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz to be the MVP frontrunner. He racked up 3,296 passing yards and 33 touchdowns before tearing his ACL 13 games into the season.

It’s little surprise that these three quarterbacks lead the way in our current GTBets MVP odds Check out the full odds below along with analysis on the top candidates.

Betting Odds on 2018 NFL MVP

Below you can see the current GTBets odds on who’ll win the MVP award this year. Keep in mind that these odds are removed and added on a regular basis leading up to the start of the regular season:

  • carson-wentz-eaglesAaron Rodgers +450
  • Tom Brady +600
  • Carson Wentz +1000
  • Drew Brees +1200
  • Deshaun Watson +1400
  • Andrew Luck +2000
  • Jimmy Garoppolo +2000
  • Kirk Cousins +2000
  • Russell Wilson +2000
  • Cam Newton +2500
  • Matt Ryan +2500
  • Philip Rivers +2500
  • Todd Gurley +2500
  • Ben Roethlisberger +3000
  • Matt Stafford +3000
  • Le’Veon Bell +3000
  • Ezekiel Elliott +3500
  • Jared Goff +3500
  • Dak Prescott +4000
  • Derek Carr +4000
  • Marcus Mariota +4000
  • David Johnson +4500
  • Alex Smith +5000
  • Antonio Brown +5000
  • Jameis Winston +6000
  • Case Keenum +7500

Analysis on Leading 2018 NFL MVP Candidates

Aaron Rodgers +450

Rodgers was having another strong season when he got hurt in the Packers’ seventh game. But his interceptions (6) were a little high at the time by his standards. No. 12 is no doubt a strong MVP candidate year in and year out. But do the Pack have enough weapons to help Rodgers play his best?

tom-brady-vs-brownsTom Brady +600

Brady didn’t have the same unworldy touchdown-to-interception ratio that he had in 2016, when he tossed 28 TDs against just 2 interceptions. However, he certainly did enough to turn in a legitimate MVP season. Brady continues beating Father Time thanks to his strict regimen under Alex Guerrero. That said, he’s not a bad bet at +600.

Carson Wentz +1000

Wentz was likely headed for an MVP award in just his second season. But the 25-year-old tore his ACL in December and may not be available right away. Given that Wentz is unlikely to be ready by Week 1, he could start off the MVP race in the hole. Therefore, it makes sense that his odds are at +1000.

drew-breesDrew Brees +1200

The Saints used their talented running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, quite a bit last season. Consequently, Drew Brees’ numbers of 4,334 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions weren’t as gaudy as in previous seasons. He did have a 72.0% completion rate and a 103.9 rating, though. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kamara and Ingram put up big numbers again, thus cannibalizing Brees’ MVP bid.

Deshaun Watson +1400

Watson was having a fine rookie campaign until tearing his ACL seven games into the season. He’s a dual-threat quarterback who keeps opposing defenses off guard. But he has to get better at realizing what’s an acceptable risk so that he doesn’t get hurt.

andrew-luck-injury-return-2017Andrew Luck +2000

The biggest question mark going into the 2018 MVP race is Luck. He hasn’t played a regular season snap in over a year due to a lingering shoulder injury. I doubt that he makes a serious bid for MVP this year due to rust and the Colts’ lacking roster.

Jimmy Garoppolo +2000

Garoppolo made headlines for taking adult film star¬†Kiara Mia on a date this summer, causing some to question if his head is in the game. He gets a chance to prove the naysayers wrong in his first full season as a starter. Garoppolo has the talent to be a star. But it’s dicey betting on him as an MVP.

russell-wilson-2018-mvpRussell Wilson +2000

My favorite pick on this list is Russell Wilson (see my full analysis here). He’s going to need to do more than ever to help Seattle reach the playoffs. If they do, then look for Wilson to finish at or near the top of the voting.

Kirk Cousins +2000

Kirk Cousins gets his first legitimate chance to be an MVP candidate. He’s playing on a talented Vikings team that should perform well enough to keep Cousins in the conversation. Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph give the $84 million QB a better receiving corp than he had in Washington. Look for Cousins to emerge as a darkhorse MVP candidate.

Russell Wilson: Top Candidate for 2018 MVP?

2015-nfl-playoffs-russell-wilsonRussell Wilson has been in the NFL MVP conversation entering each of the last few seasons. But he’s not on the same tier as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers when you look at the 2018 NFL MVP odds. That said, Wilson could offer major upside on the MVP prop bet.

This might seem strange when considering that Wilson didn’t receive a single vote last year. But the four-time Pro Bowler certainly deserved consideration, given that he kept Seattle in postseason contention. 2018 will see Wilson play on an even less-talented version of the Seahawks.

First off, he’ll be the lone big star on offense. Receiver Doug Baldwin is the only other serious playmaker on this team. The run game is barely there, and the offensive line hasn’t provided Wilson with a clean pocket in years.

He won’t always have great field position either when considering that Seattle’s dominant defense is now broken up. Gone are Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, and Michael Bennett.

One more challenge the team faces is a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer. This isn’t to say that Schottenheimer won’t be good in his role. But it’s just one more question mark in a slew of them for Seattle.

Wilson will Need to do Even More This Season

russell-wilsonLast season, Russell Wilson led the league in touchdown passes (34), led his team in rushing yards (586), and accounted for 95% of Seattle’s scores. Sadly, he’ll need to be even better than this for the Hawks to succeed.

Only a few other players in the league are asked to do as much, including Rodgers, Brady, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford. Wilson belongs in this list, and his coaches realize it too.

They were a smash-mouth running team when he arrived. Now, Seattle relies completely on Wilson’s talents to generate offense.

He’s one of the league’s best when it comes to making zone-reads, creating plays out of nowhere, and busting off explosive runs.

Will Seattle’s Offensive Plan Work?

Schottenheimer runs a complex version of the West Coast offense that relies on a strong running game. But it might be Wilson doing most of the running this season.

As good as Wilson is, though, head coach Pete Carroll knows that the team needs other people making plays to win. Therefore, he’s willing to commit to Shottenheimer’s offensive style.

“It’s a commitment to that’s the style of play and that fits,” Carroll told ESPN710 Seattle.

russell-wilson-2018-mvp“You go back to a couple of years ago when [Schottenheimer] had Mark Sanchez back there and they ran the football like crazy, and they won a couple of championships there really with a young quarterback based on the commitment to the run and playing defense.

“Well you know us, that’s something that we do understand about how you play the game of football. He’s committed to it. He gets us.”

The hope is that the team has a balanced attack that features s 50:50 pass-run ratio. This would be a departure from the pass-heavy offense of previous years.

Seattle passed on nearly 60% of their plays in 2017 and missed the playoffs. Yet they had 53:47 and 52:48 ratios during their back-to-back Super Bowl runs.

While all of this sounds good, the Seahawks may not have the personnel to pull off Schottenheimer’s vision. They took Rashaad Penny in the first round in hopes that he can spark the running game. But he’s a rookie, and Wilson is a more-reliable option to carry the load at this point.

Can the Seahawk’s Offensive Line Hold Up?

As mentioned before, Seattle’s offensive line hasn’t been the greatest over the past few seasons. However, they’re hoping that returning four starters from last season can help this problem.

Duane Brown and Germain Ifedi return as starting tackles, Justin Britt returns at center, and Ethan Pocic will start at guard again.

“I think that we actually have a consistency up front right now with the ones in particular, which we’ve never really had,” Wilson said of this year’s O-line.

“We always kind of trade places and put people in, which is good, but then at the same time, there’s no consistency. And with the line in particular, those five guys, you need that consistency, you need the nucleus of those five.”

If the offensive line plays better and exceeds expectations, then Wilson has a realistic shot at putting up MVP numbers. Assuming he can also propel Seattle to the playoffs, then he’ll be competing alongside the likes of Rodgers and Brady for the MVP.