1st NFL Coach Fired Odds – Who’s On the Hot Seat?

mike-mccoy-chargersWe’re only a few days away from the beginning of the 2016 NFL regular season.

This year brings promise to teams that missed the playoffs last season. But it also brings the pressure of making the postseason for some of these teams.

So which coaches’ jobs are on the line if they don’t get off to a hot start? Take a look below as we discuss odds for the 1st NFL coach to be fired along with analysis on some of the coaches’ job security.

1st NFL Coach Fired Odds for 2016

Bill O Brien +1500
Chip Kelly +2500
Chuck Pagano +1000
Dan Quinn +1600
Field (any other) +350
Gus Bradley +1500
Jason Garrett +1800
Jay Gruden +2500
Jeff Fisher +1000
Jim Caldwell +450
John Fox +2500
Mike McCoy +550
Mike Mularkey +1600
Rex Ryan +1500

Analysis on Potential Fired Coaches

Chip Kelly, San Francisco 49ers; +2500 odds

chip-kelly-49ersAfter losing the locker room in Philadelphia and being fired with one game left in the regular season, Chip Kelly has plenty to prove entering this season with the Niners. Unfortunately, that’ll be tough on a team with no clear-cut starting quarterback and plenty of holes in other areas. Kelly might get at least two seasons to prove himself in San Francisco – but only if he can help this team avoid embarrassment in its first season.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts; +1000

Pagano dealt with rumors last year that he or general manager Ryan Grigson could be fired. Owner Jim Irsay decided to keep both, but both could be gone if the Colts don’t at least make the playoffs. This is especially the case since Indianapolis is expected to win the AFC South.

Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars; +1500

Gus Bradley has coached this team for three years and produced a 12-36 record. That was considered sufficient enough for a rebuilding franchise that wants to return to respectability. But this season is different because the Jaguars spent $225 million on free agents in the offseason, and they at least hope to compete in the AFC South. We’re betting that Bradley needs to win at least 7 games to have real job security.

jason-garrett-cowboys-firedJason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys; +1800

Jerry Jones has stuck with Jason Garrett despite a 45-43 record and one playoff appearance in five and a half years. But Jones is finally losing his patience after criticizing the team for their poor play with QB Tony Romo injured last season. Romo will be out half the year after fracturing a back bone, meaning rookie Dak Prescott will take the reigns. If this turns out to be a repeat of last season, then Garrett will probably be fired.

Jeff Fisher, Los Angeles Rams; +1000

Fisher is only 27-36-1 in his four seasons with the Rams, with no trips to the postseason. One thing that could help Fisher’s job security is that owner Stan Kroenke has already sold 70,000 season tickets for the team’s first season back in L.A.. But winning would help even more because keeping a coach after five straight losing seasons is pretty rare in the NFL.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions; +450

It looked like Caldwell might be ready for an early exit last season, when the Lions started 1-7. But they turned things around after the bye week, going 6-2 and climbing to respectability. Caldwell may have earned another season, but owner Martha Firestone Ford won’t settle for a poor record. It also doesn’t help that new general manager Bob Quinn may have another candidate in mind if things don’t improve.

Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers; +550

McCoy got off to a good start in his first year, going 9-7 and making the playoffs. But the team disappointed with a 4-12 finish last season. San Diego is pushing for a new stadium, and they have a better chance if the team succeeds. Another bad season under McCoy, and the Chargers will be looking for a new coach along with a stadium.

Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans; +1600

Titans Chiefs footballMularkey was a surprise hiring after going 2-7 as the interim coach of the Tennessee Titans last year. This hasn’t bought him much time to show what he can do, especially with a new general manager in Jon Robinson. One thing that the franchise is counting on is for second-year QB Marcus Mariota to show some development. If Mularkey can help further Mariota and pick up several wins, then his job is safe.

Rex Ryan, Buffalo Bills; +1500

Rex Ryan led the Bills to an 8-8 record last year, which doesn’t usually put a coach on the hot seat. However, this was also a team that went 9-7 the year before and was expected to contend for the AFC East crown. Ryan brings a lot of media attention wherever he goes, which only makes losses look even worse. Add in the fact that owner Terry Pegula doesn’t keep coaches around long, and Ryan must win to extend his short tenure.

Buffalo’s Rex Ryan to be fired?

Rex RyanThe Buffalo Bills’ season got off to a solid 5-4 start. But since then, they’ve lost four out of five games and the pressure is really on head coach Rex Ryan. Now that the 6-8 team is officially eliminated from playoff contention, rumors are circulating that Ryan could be fired from Buffalo after just one season.

The speculation kicked up following a 35-25 loss to the Washington Redskins, where the 53-year-old coach promised that “drastic changes” would be coming.

“If we don’t get better, the reality of it is this,” said Ryan. “This is the National Football League and unless we get a heck of a lot better, there’s going to be changes. That’s what I told them, there’s going to be drastic changes.”

When asked to expand on what he meant, Ryan merely offered, “When you have a season like this, then you have to consider changes. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.”

The Bills had a promising 9-7 record last season under head coach Doug Marrone, who resigned in the offseason. Ryan was then hired after being fired by the New York Jets, and he was expected to improve an already strong defense. However, the team only ranks 20th in defense this year, and they’ve tallied just 20 sacks – far off the blistering pace they set last season by recording 54 sacks.

Defensive end Mario Williams has been really unhappy in Ryan’s scheme and there’s rumors that this could be his last year in Buffalo. Of course, injuries have hit the team hard, which is something that Ryan recently addressed.

rex-ryan-buffalo-bills“I think any time you don’t reach your expectations or whatever, you’ve got to look deep into why things happen,” Ryan told the New York Post. “It’s easy to point to injuries. A lot of teams go through it. It’s ridiculous the amount of injuries we’ve had. Is that a contributing factor? Of course, and it would be ridiculous if you don’t think it is. However, we’ve got to look at other things as well and everything has to be looked at. We have two games to prove that we belong here. That’s every coach, every player, everybody and that’s just the reality of the business.”

It’s interesting that Ryan is already looking back on a lost season with two games left to play. However, the expectations were high in Buffalo coming off a winning campaign last year. And now the question is if Ryan will be back to try again with this team in 2016.

“There’s a good nucleus here,” he said. “There’s an excellent group here. Did it go according to plan? No, not this year. I thought in my heart of hearts that we would be good enough to make a playoff run. I understand the fans’ frustrations. I feel personally responsible. I don’t want to let our fans down. It just pains me that we couldn’t deliver it this year.”

The Bills end their 2015 season with games against the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets. Depending upon how they perform in these last two contests, it could go a long way towards determining whether or not Ryan and his staff come back for a second season. Furthermore, these games will decide how much player turnover is needed in order to have a successful year in 2016.