2014 Super Bowl Betting Prediction

peyton-manningEarly into the 2013-14 NFL season, many analysts tabbed the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks to meet in Super Bowl XLVIII. Of course, we all know how these early-season predictions can quickly be derailed through the lengthy grind of an NFL season. But in this case, the best two teams will be battling each other for the Lombardi Trophy. Now, the big question is which of these squads has the upper hand as we head towards the February 2nd showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Both teams finished with a 13-3 record, which tied for the league’s best record. You could make an argument for either team playing in the league’s toughest conference. In the AFC West, Denver twice played playoff-bound clubs in Kansas City and San Diego. Seattle, meanwhile, played their NFC West division rival San Francisco twice in the regular season and in the NFC Championship game. They also played a 10-win team in Arizona two times during the season.

So there’s not much that can be learned from either team’s regular season record or division. Does either team have much experience in the big game? Not really. It’s been 15 years since the Broncos last made it to the Super Bowl. In 1999, John Elway led Denver to a victory over the Atlanta Falcons, marking their second straight Lombardi Trophy. Seattle’s lone Super Bowl was in 2006, when they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. There are no holdovers from this team to teach the current Seahawks what to expect in the world’s biggest football game.

If there’s any separation to be found, it’s in what the Broncos and Seahawks do best. For Denver, this means scoring points, which they did at a record pace after breaking the all-time points-per-game mark with 37.9 PPG, tallying 6 different games where they topped 40 points. Peyton Manning made it look easy as he set some history of his own by throwing for 5,477 yards and 55 TD’s. It certainly doesn’t hurt his cause that he has Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to throw the ball to.

russell-wilsonSeattle did their damage on defense by holding opponents to a league-best 14.4 PPG. They were especially effective against quarterbacks after holding signal callers to a meager 172 passing yards per game. Their offense is pretty solid too, led by second-year QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch.

But make no mistake about it, the attention will all be on how Peyton and his receivers deal with CB Richard Sherman and the vaunted Seattle pass defense/rush. Believe it or not, this is actually just the first time that the league’s number one passing attack will square off against the top pass defense.

Sherman summed up the challenge that his team will be facing by writing the following on his Sports Illustrated blog:

The Broncos stand in our way, and it’s a large obstacle. They’ve got the smartest quarterback in football and receivers who are large (mostly), explosive with the football and run great routes. Wes Welker is quick and elusive, Eric Decker is a great receiver with hands and speed, and Demaryius Thomas is as strong as they come. And Peyton knows how to get each of them in spots.

Sherman is easily one of the league’s cockiest and best players. So when he starts touting the weapons on Denver’s offense, you know they have to be good! Of course, Seattle is far from a pushover, and they’d be a Super Bowl favorite in many other years. But with Peyton playing in his third career Super Bowl and the Broncos coming off an easy 10-point win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, we like Denver in this one.

2014 Super Bowl Prediction: Denver 27, Seattle 20

GTBets.eu Line: Denver -2.5   Over/Under 47 (-110)

Vegas Line: Denver -2.5

2013-14 NFL Futures: Can the Baltimore Ravens Repeat?

joe-flaccoWhen the 2012-13 NFL season began, most people thought that the Baltimore Ravens would be a competitive team. However, few experts predicted them to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last February, especially given the strong seasons that Denver, New England, San Francisco and Atlanta had.

Nevertheless, the aging Wild Card Ravens stormed through the playoffs and on towards the Super Bowl XLVII title. Now the big question remains whether Baltimore can experience Super Bowl success two years in a row.

At this point, most experts aren’t convinced that they’ll become the eighth team in NFL history to repeat as champions. The big reason why is roster turnover since Baltimore has lost a number of key players from last year’s championship squad.

For starters, the team’s best possession receiver, Anquan Boldin, went to the San Francisco 49ers. The offense will also miss starting center Matt Birk, who went out on top by retiring this offseason.

ed-reedLosses on the other side of the ball are even more noteworthy because starting safeties Ed Reed (Houston) and Bernard Pollard (Tennessee Titans) both departed via free agency. Other key players moving on to other teams include linebackers Paul Kruger (Cleveland) and Dannell Ellerbe (Miami Dolphins) as well as cornerback Cary Williams (Philadelphia).

As if all of this isn’t enough, Baltimore lost the heart and soul of their team when franchise legend Ray Lewis retired. No. 52 only played six regular season games and recorded 57 tackles due to a triceps injury. However, he came back for the playoffs and was an inspirational force, helping guide his team to a Super Bowl win. So the question now is what’s left for the Ravens going into this year.

Everything begins with starting quarterback Joe Flacco, who signed a six-year, $120.6 million deal this past offseason. Flacco has always been consistent for the Ravens and put up solid numbers. However, he took things to the next level in last season’s playoffs after throwing for 1,140 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in four games. Flacco was so clutch that he out-dueled more heralded QB’s throughout the playoffs like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

ray-rice-ravensAnother big piece that’ll be returning for Baltimore is running back Ray Rice. The sixth-year man out of Rutgers has consistently been one of the best rushers in the NFL, and this doesn’t look to change in 2013. He once again turned in a solid regular season after compiling 1,143 rushing yards, 478 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns.

The receiving corp will be somewhat of a mystery going into the season. Torrey Smith has served as a solid deep threat, having caught 49 balls for 855 yards and 8 TD’s last year. Jacoby Jones is another veteran who’ll be hoping to make an impact on the Ravens’ passing game. He caught 30 passes for 406 yards last year with the Houston Texans.

Recent additions Brandon Stokely (via Denver) and Dallas Clark could also be seeing some passes thrown their way. The latter was signed in an effort to replace injured tight ends Dennis Pitta (hip) and Ed Dickson (hamstring). As for Stokely, the 37-year-old proved to be ageless after catching 45 passes for 544 yards and 5 touchdowns in his lone Denver season.

Elvis Dumervil, John Harbaugh, Don MartindaleMoving to the defensive side, Baltimore has picked up a large number of key additions to replace their losses. Elvis Dumervil landed with the Ravens after his agent made a fax machine error during contract proceedings with the Broncos. Dumervil brings his 11.0 sacks from last season to Baltimore and should once again be a force on the edge.

Other new faces include Chris Canty (New York Giants), Marcus Spears (Cowboys), linebacker Daryl Smith (Jacksonville), safety Michael Huff (Oakland) in addition to draft picks like K-State linebacker (Arthur Brown) and Florida safety Matt Elam.

One more point worth making about the Ravens D is that Terrell Suggs will be healthy this year. Suggs missed a large majority of 2012 with a torn Achilles tendon, but did manage to return for the latter part of the season. Now healthy and playing opposite Dumervil, he should have a fantastic 2013.

Baltimore could feature as many as seven new starters on defense, which is scary when you’re trying to repeat as Super Bowl champions. However, many people think that this team has gotten younger and faster on D.

Last year’s aging core didn’t exactly tear it up in the regular season after finishing 12th in scoring defense (21.5), 15th in sacks (37) and 17th in YPG allowed (350.9). With the diminishment of Reed and Lewis’ athletic ability, it wasn’t going to be long anyways before Baltimore needed to upgrade on defense.

Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome is one guy who’s definitely excited about the younger defense that his club will feature. “You have to face the fact the game is changing from an offensive standpoint, with more spread offenses and more read-option,” he said. “You have to become more athletic and you have to have people who can change direction and move and accelerate. I think our moves allow us to play that style of game on defense. And also, with some of our new guys in the secondary, with Matt (Elam), Dig and Michael Huff, we’ve got guys who can match up and play man to man, and that means you don’t have to be substituting all the time.”

There’s definitely been a lot of change and turnover in Baltimore this offseason. However, the team appears confident that they can contend for another Super Bowl title. Of course, pulling off another magical postseason run like last year won’t be an easy task for this club.

Baltimore has been an Extremely Popular Super Bowl Bet

Pretty much everybody doubted the Baltimore Ravens’ ability to make Super Bowl XLVII – let alone get past the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. However, things have completely changed since people are not only believing in Baltimore now, but also betting on them at sportsbooks.

According to the Los Angeles Times, two-thirds of sports bettors have wagered on the Ravens to beat the point spread. Because of this, the original line of +5 has now fallen to +3 1/2. In a year where NFL playoff favorites have went 8-2 in covering the spread, Baltimore represents the two favorites’ losses.

That said, it’s no wonder why the Ravens are drawing such heavy action. R.J. Bell of Pregame.com discussed this with the LA Times by saying, This is kind of a surprise – 65% of the bets so far have been on the underdog Ravens. That’s very unusual in the NFL.”

While people may be wagering on the underdog, San Francisco is still expected to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 3rd. But this game certainly won’t be a blowout…at least in our opinion. That said, you can check out our take on the 2013 Super Bowl as well as a final score prediction below.

San Francisco Team Strengths – We’ll start with the first and most obvious factor here: Colin Kaepernick. The second year QB has ignited the 49ers since taking over the starting job. Despite being just a second year player, he’s been especially good in the playoffs after throwing for 496 yards and three TD’s, while adding another 202 yards and two TD’s on the ground. He’s also been sacked just once in the last five games, which should prove difficult for a Ravens pass rush that’s fallen off from greatness.

Another big plus for 49ers is their rushing attack, which features Kaepernick and Frank Gore, who’s rushed for 209 yards and three touchdowns in two playoff games. Considering how Baltimore is giving up 128.3 RYPG during the postseason, we can expect to see San Francisco rush for plenty of first downs.

San Francisco also sports a pretty solid pass rush, led by Aldon Smith and his 19.5 sacks. Expect Ahmad Brooks (6.5 sacks) to apply some pressure in this contest too. One more big strength that the Niners have is their offensive line, which should give Kaepernick plenty of time to throw in his first Super Bowl.

Baltimore Team Strengths – Much of the offensive focus right now is on quarterback Joe Flacco, and deservedly so. Following a solid campaign in which he threw for 3,817 yards, 22 TD’s and 10 INT’s, Flacco has stepped it up a notch in the playoffs. In three postseason outings, the Delaware product has accumulated 853 passing yards, 8 TD’s and no interceptions.

Running back Ray Rice figures to play a huge role in Super Bowl XLVII. He’s a true dual threat as evidenced by the 1,143 rushing yards and 61 catches he had in the regular season. Rice will by far be the toughest dual threat RB that San Francisco has faced this year. When he checks out of the game, the 49ers won’t get much of a break because the backup, Bernard Pierce, is averaging 56.3 RYPG and 6.3 yards per carry in the playoffs.

Kicker Justin Tucker has been pretty clutch throughout the season; he’s made both field goals in the playoffs, and was 30-for-33 in the regular season.

Keep an eye on WR Torrey Smith (855RYDS, 8TD) during the Super Bowl since he figures to be this game’s only true deep threat. Also don’t forget about the emotional boost that franchise linebacker Ray Lewis will provide to his teammates in his final game.

Super Bowl XLVII Prediction: San Francisco 31 – Baltimore 27

The strengths seem to be split pretty evenly among these teams. The Flacco-Kaepernick duel should be quite fun to watch, Frank Gore vs. Ray Rice will be close, and both defenses are pretty solid all-around. However, we think that the offensive line of the 49ers will hold up pretty well against the Ravens’ D-line. Also, look for San Francisco to put more pressure on Flacco than he’s seen in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Protecting Flacco against Indianapolis, New England and Denver was nothing compared to what the Niners will bring.