2018 NFL MVP Odds – Rodgers, Brady, Wentz Lead the Way

aaron-rodgersTom Brady captured his third-career MVP award last season. The 41-year-old defied time by passing for 4,577 yards, 32 touchdowns, and a 66.3% completion rate. He also led the New England Patriots to their second-straight Super Bowl appearance.

Brady was aided by key injuries to other potential MVP candidates. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers played in just seven games, suffering a season-ending collarbone injury.

Many considered Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz to be the MVP frontrunner. He racked up 3,296 passing yards and 33 touchdowns before tearing his ACL 13 games into the season.

It’s little surprise that these three quarterbacks lead the way in our current GTBets MVP odds Check out the full odds below along with analysis on the top candidates.

Betting Odds on 2018 NFL MVP

Below you can see the current GTBets odds on who’ll win the MVP award this year. Keep in mind that these odds are removed and added on a regular basis leading up to the start of the regular season:

  • carson-wentz-eaglesAaron Rodgers +450
  • Tom Brady +600
  • Carson Wentz +1000
  • Drew Brees +1200
  • Deshaun Watson +1400
  • Andrew Luck +2000
  • Jimmy Garoppolo +2000
  • Kirk Cousins +2000
  • Russell Wilson +2000
  • Cam Newton +2500
  • Matt Ryan +2500
  • Philip Rivers +2500
  • Todd Gurley +2500
  • Ben Roethlisberger +3000
  • Matt Stafford +3000
  • Le’Veon Bell +3000
  • Ezekiel Elliott +3500
  • Jared Goff +3500
  • Dak Prescott +4000
  • Derek Carr +4000
  • Marcus Mariota +4000
  • David Johnson +4500
  • Alex Smith +5000
  • Antonio Brown +5000
  • Jameis Winston +6000
  • Case Keenum +7500

Analysis on Leading 2018 NFL MVP Candidates

Aaron Rodgers +450

Rodgers was having another strong season when he got hurt in the Packers’ seventh game. But his interceptions (6) were a little high at the time by his standards. No. 12 is no doubt a strong MVP candidate year in and year out. But do the Pack have enough weapons to help Rodgers play his best?

tom-brady-vs-brownsTom Brady +600

Brady didn’t have the same unworldy touchdown-to-interception ratio that he had in 2016, when he tossed 28 TDs against just 2 interceptions. However, he certainly did enough to turn in a legitimate MVP season. Brady continues beating Father Time thanks to his strict regimen under Alex Guerrero. That said, he’s not a bad bet at +600.

Carson Wentz +1000

Wentz was likely headed for an MVP award in just his second season. But the 25-year-old tore his ACL in December and may not be available right away. Given that Wentz is unlikely to be ready by Week 1, he could start off the MVP race in the hole. Therefore, it makes sense that his odds are at +1000.

drew-breesDrew Brees +1200

The Saints used their talented running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, quite a bit last season. Consequently, Drew Brees’ numbers of 4,334 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions weren’t as gaudy as in previous seasons. He did have a 72.0% completion rate and a 103.9 rating, though. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kamara and Ingram put up big numbers again, thus cannibalizing Brees’ MVP bid.

Deshaun Watson +1400

Watson was having a fine rookie campaign until tearing his ACL seven games into the season. He’s a dual-threat quarterback who keeps opposing defenses off guard. But he has to get better at realizing what’s an acceptable risk so that he doesn’t get hurt.

andrew-luck-injury-return-2017Andrew Luck +2000

The biggest question mark going into the 2018 MVP race is Luck. He hasn’t played a regular season snap in over a year due to a lingering shoulder injury. I doubt that he makes a serious bid for MVP this year due to rust and the Colts’ lacking roster.

Jimmy Garoppolo +2000

Garoppolo made headlines for taking adult film star Kiara Mia on a date this summer, causing some to question if his head is in the game. He gets a chance to prove the naysayers wrong in his first full season as a starter. Garoppolo has the talent to be a star. But it’s dicey betting on him as an MVP.

russell-wilson-2018-mvpRussell Wilson +2000

My favorite pick on this list is Russell Wilson (see my full analysis here). He’s going to need to do more than ever to help Seattle reach the playoffs. If they do, then look for Wilson to finish at or near the top of the voting.

Kirk Cousins +2000

Kirk Cousins gets his first legitimate chance to be an MVP candidate. He’s playing on a talented Vikings team that should perform well enough to keep Cousins in the conversation. Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph give the $84 million QB a better receiving corp than he had in Washington. Look for Cousins to emerge as a darkhorse MVP candidate.

Odds on 2017/18 NFL MVP – Who should You Bet on?

jj-watt-mvpOne of the most-exciting NFL futures bets is who will win the MVP. And the reason why this is such a fun wager is because you never know who’s going to win.

Last season, Matt Ryan was a surprise winner after completing 69.9% of his passes, throwing for 4,944 yards, tossing 38 TDs, and boasting a 117.1 passer rating.

Will we have a surprise MVP in the 2017/18 NFL season? We’ll discuss this matter below by looking at some of the hottest betting picks. But let’s first check out the 2017 MVP odds courtesy of GTBets:

  • Aaron Rodgers +550
  • Adrian Peterson +10000
  • Andrew Luck +3000
  • Antonio Brown +4000
  • Ben Roethlisberger +1800
  • Cam Newton +2500
  • Carson Palmer +7500
  • Dak Prescott +2000
  • David Johnson +2500
  • Derek Carr +1000
  • Drew Brees +2500
  • Eli Manning +5000
  • Ezekiel Elliott +4000
  • JJ Watt +10000
  • Jameis Winston +1600
  • Julio Jones +5000
  • Kirk Cousins +6000
  • Le’Veon Bell +2500
  • Marcus Mariota +2800
  • Matt Ryan +1400
  • Matt Stafford +4500
  • Philip Rivers +4500
  • Rob Gronkowski +10000
  • Russell Wilson +1000
  • Sam Bradford +10000
  • Tom Brady +400

7 Players Offering Value with 2017 NFL MVP Odds

1. Matt Ryan +1400

matt-ryan-falconsAs mentioned earlier, Matt Ryan had an outstanding season after throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and finishing with 38 touchdowns against 7 interceptions.

So what’s changed this year? Not much at all. This is why it’s strange to see both Tom Brady (+400) and Aaron Rodgers (+550) with better MVP odds than Ryan. The latter has the best target in the game in Julio Jones, and two running backs with good hands in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman.

Colin Cowherd may say that Ryan isn’t an elite quarterback. But how can he be anything but with the great supporting cast around him?

2. JJ Watt +10000

There are two reasons why Watt’s MVP odds are so poor: 1) he’s coming off an injury plagued season; 2) he’s a defensive player.

A defensive player hasn’t won MVP in over 30 years. But Watt has a chance when healthy, as he’s proven by being one of the most-dominant defensive lineman of all time. Watt is a great value bet at +10000 odds.

3. Julio Jones +5000

julio-jones-2016Jerry Rice is the only wide receiver to win MVP honors. So Jones has a large hill to climb in this regard. But it’s hard to overlook his chances after two straight big seasons.

In 2015, he caught 136 balls (T-2nd most ever) and tallied 1,871 receiving yards (2nd most ever). He had another big year in 2016, catching 83 passes for 1,409 yards. If the 28-year-old can repeat 2015’s performance, he has a chance to become the second-ever receiver to win MVP. At +5000 odds, we like this pick.

4. Kirk Cousins +6000

Kirk Cousins will be auditioning for a big, long-term contract for the next two seasons. This means that we can likely expect another strong season following Cousins’ 2016 campaign, where he threw for 4,917 yards, had 25 touchdowns, and completed 67% of his passes. The big thing that would help Cousins’ case is if Washington can make the playoffs.

5. David Johnson +2500

david-johnson-cardinalsDavid Johnson was the league’s best dual-threat running back last season. He rushed for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns. Johnson added another 879 receiving yards and 4 TDs on 80 catches.

The only thing missing from Johnson’s campaign is a winning team that draws media attention. The Cardinals were a disappointing 7-8-1 last season. But they have a chance to turn things around this year and position Johnson as a serious MVP candidate.

6. Le’Veon Bell +2500

leveon-bellThe good news for Pittsburgh fans is that Bell will be reporting to the team after a contract holdout. This also ensures that he has some chance at MVP.

Of course, he has teammates Ben Roethlisberger (+1800) and Antonio Brown (+4000) to compete with if the Steelers have a great season. But we like Bell among this trio coming off a stellar year, where he rushed for 1,268 yards and 7 touchdowns on just 261 carries (12 games).

7. Matthew Stafford +4500

matt-staffordNot everybody is a fan of Matt Stafford’s new deal. But he justified his contract with a solid campaign where he completed 65.3% of his passes for 4,327 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s now thrown for over 4,000 yards in six straight seasons. If he can get in the upper 4000s and adds some TDs, Stafford is a legitimate MVP candidate.

7 Players with No Chance to Win 2017/18 NFL MVP

1. Andrew Luck +3000 – We’re not even sure when Luck will take the field again after shoulder surgery. This could end up being a lost season for the Colts’ signal caller, and it makes him the worst value pick.

2. Ezekiel Elliott +4000 – Maybe Elliott wins his case against the NFL in a federal courtroom. But for now, he’s set to miss the first 6 games of the season.

3. Marcus Mariota +2800 – Mariota showed a lot of improvement in his second season, with 3,426 passing yards, 349 rushing yards, 26 TD passes, and 9 interceptions. But he’ll need an even bigger leap to put up MVP numbers.

4. Philip Rivers +4500 – Rivers has the type of stats to be considered an MVP candidate. But the Chargers haven’t won more than 9 games in the past seven seasons.

5. Russell Wilson +1000 – We like Wilson’s talent, and we like his team. But Wilson just doesn’t put up the numbers to win an MVP award. He’s an especially bad bet at +1000.

6. Rob Gronkowski +10000 – No tight end has ever won the MVP award. We don’t think that even Gronk will change this.

7. Sam Bradford +10000 – He’s a decent starting quarterback, but c’mon…