Mexico has by all accounts had a fantastic start to the 2018 World Cup. They began with a stunning 1-0 victory against defending champion Germany. Then they beat South Korea 2-1 to begin with a perfect record in two matches.
But Germany’s stoppage-time win over Sweden has thrown Group F into disarray. Toni Kroos netted a late winner to help the Germans beat Sweden 2-1.
You would think that El Tri would be in perfect shape with their 2-0 start. But Mexico could still theoretically be prevented from going to the knockout round. I’ll cover all of the possible scenarios. But first, take a look at the current standings.
A Wild Finish to Group F?
Mexico takes on Sweden to finish up group play, while Germany will face South Korea. All four teams are technically alive in an effort to reach the knockout rounds. This seems strange, especially when considering that South Korea (0-0-2) has yet to gain a single point.
Here are the scenarios in which each team could move on:
- Germany advances if…
- They beat South Korea; Mexico defeats or draws Sweden
- (Or) Sweden defeats Mexico; Germany wins a three-way tiebreaker (goal differential, goals scored) with either team. Mexico currently holds a +2 goal differential over both teams.
- (Or) Germany draws with South Korea; Mexico beats Sweden.
- (Or) Germany and Sweden both tie in their final matches; Germany beats Sweden in a 2-way tiebreaker (both are tied in goal differential).
- (Or) They lose to South Korea; Mexico beats Sweden; Germany wins 3-way tiebreaker with South Korea and Sweden.
- Germany automatically fails to advance if…
They lose to South Korea; Sweden beats or ties Mexico.
- Mexico advances if…
- They defeat or draw with Sweden.
- (Or) German loses or draws with South Korea.
- (Or) Sweden beats Mexico by one goal (El Tri is +2 on Swedes).
- (Or) Mexico loses to Sweden; Germany only beats South Korea by one goal (Mexico up +2 on Germany).
- (Or) Sweden beats Mexico by +2 goals: Germany loses or draws to South Korea.
- Mexico automatically fails to advance if…
- They lose to Sweden by +2 goals; Germany wins against South Korea.
- Sweden advances if…
- They beat Mexico by +2 goals.
- They defeat Mexico; Germany loses or ties South Korea.
- (Or) They draw with Mexico; South Korea beats Germany.
- (Or) Germany ties South Korea; Sweden ties Mexico; they win tiebreaker against the Germans.
- (Or) Sweden loses against Mexico; South Korea beats Germany; Sweden wins tiebreakers against Korea and Germany.
- Sweden automatically fails to advance if…
- They lose against Mexico; Germany defeats or ties South Korea.
- South Korea advances if...
- They win against Germany; Mexico beats Sweden; Korea finishes ahead of Germany and Sweden in a 3-way tiebreaker (they’re currently behind both in goal differential).
- South Korea automatically fails to advance if…
- South Korea loses or draws with Germany.
Chances of Each Team Advancing
Their chances of moving on to the knockout stage are 87%. Much of this has to do with how heavily favored Germany is against South Korea. You can see the odds here at GTBets.
Mexico currently has a 72% chances of advancing. This is strange when considering that they’re the only undefeated team in Group F. The biggest issue here is that they face a strong team in Sweden.
The Swedes have a 40% chance of getting to the knockout stage. Failing to draw against Germany has really hurt their case.
South Korea only has a 1% chance of moving on. They must beat a high-powered German team and get help in the form of tiebreakers.