Goldman Sachs AI Predicts Brazil will Win World Cup – Uses 1 Million Simulations

brazil-world-cup-2018Several countries enter the 2018 FIFA World Cup with a good chance to win. And this makes it tough to predict a winner when looking at World Cup futures. But if you’re looking for help when betting on the future champ, then consider the results from Goldman Sachs’ artificial intelligence program.

The investment firm’s AI used machine learning to create 200,000 models, which come from mining data on players and teams to predict match scores. After going through 1 million variations of the World Cup, Goldman Sachs has determined that Brazil will win the tournament.

AI Shows Match Scores in 2018 World Cup Bracket

The picture shown below features the match results predicted by Goldman Sachs. The numbers listed next to each country dictate whether each team beats its opponent. These numbers also predict the unrounded number of goals scored in each potential iteration of the event.


An unnamed member of Goldman Sachs’ research team wrote about the interesting model that they used to predict the World Cup matches and final results.

“We are drawn to machine learning models because they can sift through a large number of possible explanatory variables to produce more accurate forecasts than conventional alternatives,” wrote the employee.

More World Cup Findings from Goldman Sachs

You can see some of the other interesting findings from Goldman Sachs below:

  • Brazil is expected to win its sixth World Cup. The AI predicts that they’ll beat Germany in the championship by an unrounded score of 1.70 to 1.41.
  • France actually maintains the second-highest odds of winning. But their semi-final meeting with Brazil gives them less of a chance to win than Germany, which wouldn’t face the Brazilians until the final.
  • Argentina and Spain — two of the world’s best teams — are expected to fall short of expectations and lose in the quarterfinals.
  • England — one of the most-publicized teams — should have a strong World Cup run. But they’re predicted to lose to Germany in the quarterfinals.
  • Saudi Arabia could be the Cup’s biggest Cinderella, advancing out of their group stage in spite of their lowish world ranking.
  • Russia, the host country, isn’t predicted to make it past the group stage. They’re expected to be upset by Saudi Arabia.

Anything can Happen

Using data from Goldman Sachs’ AI is definitely an interesting way to look at the 2018 World Cup. But you can’t guarantee anything from a betting standpoint just by using results from the program. An author from the study cautions this with the following statement:

“We capture the stochastic nature of the tournament carefully using state-of-the-art statistical methods and we consider a lot of information in doing so. But the forecasts remain highly uncertain, even with the fanciest statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game. This is, of course, precisely why the World Cup will be so exciting to watch.”

2018 World Cup Futures

As covered above, Brazil is expected to take home the World Cup crown this year. And if you’re confident in the Goldman Sachs AI, then you can bet on Brazil through our GTBets World Cup futures.

Also note that you can wager on any of the other favorites too, including Germany, France, Argentina, Spain, Portugal, and England.

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