In fact, we have dozens of 2018 Super Bowl prop bets available. These range from things as simple as which team will win the coin toss, to who’ll win the game’s MVP award.
You can check out all of our Super Bowl 52 prop bets here (click “More Bets” in the Super Bowl line). And keep reading as I analyze a few of the bets being offered and give advice on what you should do.
Player to win 2018 Super Bowl MVP
- Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) +2500
- Brandin Cooks (NE) +2000
- Chris Hogan (NE) +4000
- Danny Amendola (NE) +1800
- Dion Lewis (NE) +1800
- Fletcher Cox (PHI) +3000
- Jake Elliott (PHI) +6000
- James White (NE) +3500
- Jay Ajayi (PHI) +1600
- LeGarrette Blount (PHI) +4500
- Nelson Agholor (PHI) +5000
- Nick Foles (PHI) +333
- Rex Burkhead (NE) +5000
- Rob Gronkowski (NE) +900
Who will win the Super Bowl 52 MVP Award?
Instead, what we’re left with is a group led by Philadelphia QB Nick Foles at +333. I can’t really say that I see any value in picking Foles here, unless he’s somehow able to repeat his performance from the NFC Championship (352 passing yards, 3 TDs). But given his erratic play, I wouldn’t bet on this happening at the current price.
Sometimes, the Super Bowl MVP is a player whom you don’t expect to win. But mostly, it’s the big-name guys who’ve been around the league for a while. Case in point, Tom Brady has won two out of the last three years, while Giants QB Eli Manning (twice), Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, Saints QB Drew Brees, and Denver linebacker Von Miller have won within the past decade.
That said, I’m looking at players like Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffrey, Dion Lewis, and Jay Ajayi.
I believe that all five of these players are offering better value than Foles. And while Foles does fit the typical quarterback requirement, look at the QBs who’ve actually won – none of them are backups-turned-starters.
1st score of the game
- Eagles Field Goal +450
- Eagles Passing TD +440
- Eagles Rushing TD +600
- Any Other Eagles Score +1600
- Patriots Field Goal +375
- Patriots Passing TD +275
- Patriots Rushing TD +600
- Any Other Patriots Score +1800
What will the first score be?
But Super Bowl history shows us that the Patriots have only scored first in two of the seven Super Bowls during the Brady/Bill Belichick era.
That said, the Eagles are a good bet to score first. Philly also ranked third in the league with 6.3 points per quarter, which is worth keeping in mind.
The Eagles scored 53 TDs against 29 field goals during the regular season, for roughly a 2:1 ratio.
They only had 9 rushing TDs during the regular season, so you want to throw this bet out at +600.
They had 38 passing TDs against 29 field goals, which gives Eagles Passing TD +440 the most value (versus +450 for a field goal). But note that Wentz threw many of those touchdowns, making the value here slimmer than it appears.
First play of the game
Will the first play from scrimmage be a rush or pass?
The Eagles rushed 473 times versus passing 341 times on the season, for roughly a 12:8 ratio. The Patriots passed 448 times versus rushing 389 times, for roughly a 10:8 ratio.
Combined, the teams are at an 11:9 ratio with regard to rushes vs. passes.
The run vs. pass odds are at an 11.2:8.8 ratio. Therefore, I give the slight edge to a running play happening first.
Longest made FG – Either team
Over 47.5 (-130)
Under 47.5 (+100)
Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski made 37 of 40 field goals on the year, with 7 of these coming from 47+ yards. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott made 26 of 31 field goals, with 10 of these coming from 47+ yards.
This means that both kickers, who have powerful legs, combined to make 17 of their combined 71 total field goals from 47.5+ yards. However, this is only 24% of their combined attempts.
Combine the fact that the odds are -130 on betting over 47.5 yards, and you definitely want to take the under here.
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD
The Eagles tied Jacksonville for the most defensive touchdowns at 5, and they scored one in the postseason.
This means New England and Philadelphia have combined for 7 defensive and special teams touchdowns in 18 games.
The theoretical chances of seeing either a defensive or special teams TD in this game are 38.9%.
Now, let’s do a little math on why betting No is a good idea:
- You stand to win $100 for every $235 wagered.
- 100/235 = 42.6% bet equity.
- 42.6 – 38.9 = 3.7% advantage for No bet.
As you can see, wagering on no defensive or special teams TDs is a smart bet.
Final Thoughts on 2018 Super Bowl Prop Bets
You’ll have no shortage of prop bets to choose from for Super Bowl 52. But I strongly suggest that you limit your prop bets to those that can actually be researched through stats.
I discussed a few above, and you’ll also find some other wagers where you can spot value on one side of the line through research.
Of course, there are also some pure gambles, such as the coin toss bet. I never like these, because there’s no skill to guessing whether a coin will and heads or tails. Instead, I like the other prop bets that do bring skill into the equation.
If you also go this route, make sure to do your research and pick a winner!