No. 12 led the NFL in this category for the first time since 2007. Brady will look to make it two years in a row, but he’ll no doubt have some fierce competition.
That said, let’s look at all of the betting odds regarding who will throw for the most yards in 2018.
Odds on 2018 NFL Leader Passer
Below you can see the GTBets odds on each quarterback’s chances of leading the NFL in passing yards. Keep in mind that these odds are available up until the start of the regular season:
- Drew Brees +450
- Field (all others +450
- Tom Brady +500
- Aaron Rodgers +750
- Philip Rivers +850
- Ben Roethlisberger +1100
- Matthew Stafford +1200
- Matt Ryan +1400
- Andrew Luck +1600
- Kirk Cousins +1800
- Deshaun Watson +2000
- Jimmy Garoppolo +2000
- Patrick Mahomes +2000
- Russell Wilson +3000
Analysis on Potential 2018 NFL Passing Leaders
Drew Brees is a perennial favorite to be at the top of the league in passing yards. After all, he led the NFL in passing yardage from 2014-16. He also finished fourth last season with 4,334 yards.
However, it’s obvious that the 39-year-old has lost a little arm strength. Furthermore, New Orleans now features a strong russhing attack led by Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. All of these factors have us thinking that Brees is overvalued at +450.
Tom Brady (+500)
Nobody would be surprised if Brady finally slowed down in 2018. He is, after all, at an age when many pro football players have long since retired.
However, Brady has perhaps proven to be the most ageless football player ever. He led the NFL in passing yards last year and is a decent bet to do so this season too. The one catch, though, is that top receiver Julian Edelman will miss the first three games.
Aaron Rodgers (+750)
Aaron Rodgers had his 2017 campaign cut short by a broken collarbone. The Green Bay Packers struggled as a result, finishing just 7-9 and missing the playoffs.
This shows how much Rodgers means to the Pack, especially considering that they don’t have much of a running game. Given that the passing attack will be heavily relied upon again, Rodgers could be a value pick at +750.
Philip Rivers quietly finished second in the league with 4,515 passing yards. The San Diego Chargers QB will once again be counted on to give this offense a lift.
Considering that the offensive line is better around him than ever, he has a good chance to equal or surpass last year’s yardage total.
Ben Roethlisberger (+1100)
Ben Roethlisberger leads what is perhaps the NFL’s most potent offense. They feature receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, along with running back Le’Veon Bell.
Roethlisberger was fifth in the league last season with 4,251 passing yards. There’s a decent chance that the Steelers can start off 10-0 based on their schedule. That said, Roethlisberger could jump out to an early lead in the passing category.
The Detroit Lions have slowly added some weapons around Matt Stafford over the past few years. He now has Golden Tate and Marvin Jones to throw to, which helped him finish third in the NFL last season with 4,446 passing yards.
I don’t see much of a reason for Stafford to throw for more than this total in 2018. This is especially the case when considering that the Lions will try to feature the run game more after adding LeGarrette Blount. Nevertheless, Stafford is a good a dark-horse pick to win this bet based on his +1200 odds.