Following the first two games of the playoff series between Memphis and San Antonio, it seemed like the latter was on their way to an easy victory. After all, the Spurs won Games 1 and 2 by a combined 33 points. But home cooking is the answer Memphis needed since they’ve evened the series up at 2 games a piece.
The last contest was particularly thrilling because Memphis sustained a big fourth quarter by Kahwi Leonard to push Game 4 into overtime and win on Marc Gasol’s last-second shot.
Of course, that game already feels like ages ago because San Antonio is favored big time as the series heads back to the AT&T Center. Can they finally end Memphis’ win streak and move on like everybody expects? Or do the Grizzlies have another upset in them? Find out as we discuss both teams’ chances of winning along with betting advice.
Western Conference Playoff Series Game 5:
Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs (Series tied at 2-2)
Tuesday, April 25 @ 9:00pm ET
GTBets.eu Betting Line: Memphis +10 (-110); San Antonio -10 (-110)
Over/Under: 186.5 (-110)
Why the Grizzlies will Cover their +10 Spread
One glance at Memphis’ roster doesn’t exactly inspire trust that they can beat a legitimate title contender in San Antonio. After all, their starting lineup features 40-year-old Vince Carter and journeyman James Ennis III. They also play the unheralded cast of JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, Wayne Seldon, and Troy Harrison off the bench.
On the surface, this feels like a team that has no business hanging with the Spurs. But in reality, the combination is working well to supplement team stars Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph.
Conley has been the biggest of these stars so far, busting out for 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting in Game 4. He also dished out 9 assists and grabbed 8 rebounds while making play after play down the stretch. And none of these plays were bigger than the game-tying shot he hit in regulation.
Gasol hasn’t had his greatest stretch of games against San Antonio. But he fought through shooting struggles in the previous contest to score 16 points, while adding 12 rebounds and 4 assists.
Going back to the bench, each player has brought good defense and scrappiness to the lineup. This is especially the case with Carter and Ennis, who’ve done their best to contain Leonard. While this is almost an impossible task these days, both players have slowed down the MVP candidate at times.
Nobody expected Memphis to be in this position after the first two games of the series. But if they can bring their tough defense to San Antonio this time, then they have a decent chance of keeping the game close, or even winning.
ATS Record: The Grizzlies are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games, including 2-2 in this series. Memphis has lost big against the spread in both contests played in San Antonio. We wouldn’t be surprised if they lose another double-digit game and fail to cover their spread.
Why the Spurs will cover their -10 Spread
While many consider Russell Westbrook and James Harden to be the leading MVP candidates, Kawhi Leonard is making his own case in this series. He’s averaging 32.5 points against Memphis on 60% shooting. Leonard was especially on in Game 4, nailing 7-of-10 three’s en route to 43 points.
This is even before we get to Kawhi’s defense, which, as usual, has been incredible. Last game was a perfect example as he picked the Grizzlies’ pockets for 6 steals, and had a +18 rating when he was on the floor.
Following a game in which he scored zero points on 0-of-4 shooting, Tony Parker stormed back to score 22 points on a 9-for-19 night. Parker’s game obviously isn’t what it was a decade ago, but he’s flipped the playoff switch in April.
Aldridge has renewed his long-running battle with Randolph at power forward. He wasn’t a big factor last game, scoring 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting. We’d also like to see more rebounding out of him since he’s averaging 5.75 in the series. But Aldridge has been efficient when called upon, despite Randolph’s smothering defense.
One player whom the Spurs are getting very little out of right now is Danny Green. He’s had an awful series, highlighted by Game 4’s performance, where he scored 5 points on 2-of-9 shooting. Green must get going at some point because San Antonio has little else at shooting guard.
Despite losing both games in Memphis, San Antonio is still in good shape heading back home. And as long as Leonard continues to be himself, then the Spurs should have no trouble winning.
ATS Record: San Antonio is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games against the spread. But they’re 2-0 ATS at home in this series. Coming off two straight losses, we think they’ll be looking to make a statement in Game 5 and win big.
Final Thoughts on Grizzlies vs Spurs Betting
We admire the effort that Memphis has put forward, with three strong players and a scrappy supporting cast. In fact, we expected this series to be over in 4-5 games before it began. But Conley has played out of his mind lately, while getting significant contributions from Gasol, Randolph, and the rest of the team.
However, it’s hard for us not to see San Antonio winning another game at home – and winning big. Leonard continues taking his game to new heights every season, and this year he’s a bona fide MVP candidate. While Leonard doesn’t have another superstar playing next to him, he has more than enough in Aldridge, Parker, and Pau Gasol to take this series.
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio wins 105-91, and covers their -10 spread.