Eight times these teams have met in a major international tournament, and Germany hasn’t won a single match. But that could very well change this year since the high-powered Germans boast one of the top five teams in the world.
They’ve done little to provide doubts in the 2016 Euro Cup, posting a 3-1-0 record, with a 3-0 drubbing of Slovakia in their last outing.
Italy came into this tournament with the billing of having their least-talented Euro team in 50 years. They’ve shaken this notion, though, especially with their 2-0 victory over Spain in the round of 16, and a 2-0 win over Belgium in group play.
Both teams have impressive credentials, making this a tough match to call. If you’re looking for some betting advice, keep reading as we break down this matchup.
Germany and Italy (3:00pm EST at July 2)
Italy -0.5 (-143)
Germany -0.5 (+115)
Why Italy Will Win
Even after impressive wins over Belgium and Spain, nobody is arguing that Italy has more talent. But everybody is harping on the history of this matchup, with Italy being the winner on every occasion.
Some of these include triumphant wins, such as Italy’s 3-1 victory in the 1982 World Cup Final, and, more recently, another victory against Germany in a 2006 World Cup semifinal.
Of course, it takes more than history to win a match of this magnitude. Italy will rely on the defensive talents of Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli, and Leonardo Bonucci to stop the German attack. This is well within reach of this group too, considering that they shut down the Spanish and Belgians.
Coach Antonio Conte is also a key part of this effort. He’s shown brilliant tactical plans that highlight the Italians strengths and hide their weaknesses. Conte’s most-recent plan pressed the Spaniards and negated their ability to play out of the back. Forward Graziano Pellè stayed glued to Spanish playmaker Sergio Busquets, preventing Spain from doing much of anything on offense.
Even if we ignore history, Italy has proven that they’re far better than what anybody expected heading into the 2016 Euro Cup. And that gives them a legitimate chance to win this match.
Why German Will Win
How can this German squad erase a tortured history against the Italians? For starters, they have the better on-field talent. Manger Joachim Low has a number of options in his front side, meaning he can tweak his lineup whenever the situation requires.
This deep, talented squad was in good form against Slovakia, as Jerome Boateng, Julian Draxler, and Mario Gomez all scored goals. The 6’3″ Gomez is the focal point of this attack, while Thomas Müller and Mesut Özil provide nice offensive support.
In the end, this could come down to a battle of wills between Italy’s defense and Germany’s offense. As mentioned before, the Italians have been exceptional in the backline, holding two top-10 teams scoreless.
But Germany’s front unit is more experienced, deeper, and more talented. This should help them win the possession battle and keep pressure on Italy. If Germany can score twice, this match is over.
Prediction on Germany vs Italy
Making the quarterfinals of Euro 2016 is nothing out of the ordinary for an Italian squad. But after mastering a tougher-than-expected group and thumping Spain, Italy has gotten the world’s attention. This is a stalwart defensive unit that’s very efficient on counters. But in the end, Germany is too big, too experienced, and too good to not advance. Look for the Germans to end their losing streak against the Italians.
Final Score Prediction: Germany wins 2-1
Betting Advice: While Germany has the firepower to win, we like Italy’s moneyline (+285) or a regulation draw (+200).