1st NFL Coach to be Fired Odds – Who should You Bet on?

todd-bowles-jets-firedNo team likes firing their coach midseason. But it happens every year when teams begin struggling and realize that they’re going nowhere.

One of the most popular NFL prop bets revolves around who’ll be the first coach to get the axe.

That said, let’s look at odds on the first NFL coach to be fired. We’ll also discuss which of these bets are offering you the most value.

Odds on 1st NFL Coach to be Fired (from GTBets.eu)

Adam Gase +1100
Ben McAdoo +2000
Bill OBrien +1800
Chuck Pagano +650
Field (any other) +400
Hue Jackson +1800
Jay Gruden +2000
Jim Caldwell +600
John Fox +1400
Marvin Lewis +1400
Mike Mularkey +2000
Mike Zimmer +2500
Sean Peyton +1800
Todd Bowles +375

1. Todd Bowles, New York Jets +375
Bet Value = Very High

Two years ago, Todd Bowles led the Jets to a surprise 10-6 finish. Last year, things fell apart among locker room issues and inconsistent quarterback play.

Coming off a 5-11 record in his second season, Bowles needs a good year in 2017 to keep his job. However, the Jets haven’t set the 53-year-old coach up to succeed.

From cutting veteran players in the summer to trading defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, it’s clear that New York is tanking. The likely target is USC quarterback Sam Darnold because the Jets have desperately needed a QB for years.

But Bowles won’t be around to coach Darnold (or whoever) because his roster lacks serious veteran talent. He’s a strong bet to be the first coach fired in 2017.

2. Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions +600
Bet Value = Medium

jim-caldwell-lions-firedCaldwell is entering his fourth year as head coach of the Lions. And he has a solid 27-21 record in his Detroit tenure. But Caldwell isn’t completely safe.

He’s 0-2 in playoff games with the Lions. Plus the team played poorly down the stretch of the 2016 season, before getting thumped 26-6 in a Wild Card game against Seattle.

Caldwell has a chance to do well enough to keep his job for another season. However, he’s certainly not invincible.

3. Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins +1100
Bet Value = Very Low

Adam Gase is probably the least likely coach to be fired on this list. He guided Miami to a surprise 10-6 record and playoff appearance in 2016.

The Dolphins couldn’t hang with the Steelers in the playoffs, but they at least brought a resurgence to Miami football.

The only problem for Gase is that he’s stuck in a division with the New England Patriots. Furthermore, he had to replace injured starter Ryan Tannehill with the aging veteran Jay Cutler. But this doesn’t rule out the possibility that they get another Wild Card berth.

4. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts +650
Bet Value = High

chuck-pagano-firedFormer Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano didn’t get along. So Grigson had to go in the offseason.

Perhaps Pagano’s record saved him because he’s 49-31 with an AFC Championship game appearance in Indianapolis. But he’s still on a hot seat with the Colts failing to make the playoffs for two straight seasons.

What’s worse is that Andrew Luck could miss multiple games to start the year. If Indy begins the year poorly, don’t expect Pagano to be around long.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals +1400
Bet Value = High

marvin-lewisMarvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati for 14 seasons, which is quite impressive. And he’s made the playoffs in 7 out of these 14 years. But the huge problem for Lewis is that he’s failed to win a single playoff game.

It certainly doesn’t help matters that the Bengals are coming off a 6-9-1 season. This could be Lewis’ last year with Cincy if he doesn’t at least make the playoffs.

6. Jon Fox, Denver Broncos +1400
Bet Value = Medium

John Fox had a strong tenure in Denver, going 46-18 with four playoff appearances. But he’s yet to recapture the same success in Chicago, going 9-23 in two seasons.

Fox won’t be helped by the fact that he’ll coach a young roster with no clear stars. The Bears are essentially starting over after taking Mitch Trubisky second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. They won’t hesitate to start over at the coaching position if they need to.

7. Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans +1800
Bet Value = Low

bill-obrien-texansBill O’Brien has coached the Houston Texans to three straight 9-7 seasons, including two playoff appearances. O’Brien guided Houston to the Divisional Round last season, where they lost to the Patriots 34-16.

One thing that’s hurt O’Brien’s teams is not having a quality starting quarterback. The hope is that Deshaun Watson can eventually be this player for the Texans. But as for now, they’re rolling into the season with Tom Savage.

The good news for O’Brien, though, is that the Texans still play in a relatively weak AFC South. The Tennessee Titans will likely be good, but so too will Houston. Long story short, O’Brien’s job isn’t in much danger.

8. Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns +1800
Bet Value = Medium

deshone-kizer-hue-jacksonHue Jackson’s record was as bad as it gets, going 1-15 in his first season with the Cleveland Browns.

Improvement is expected from this team in 2017. But if it doesn’t happen, then Jackson is in danger of being canned.

Our guess is that Jackson wins at least 5 games, which is enough to show that this squad is headed in the right direction. But keep an eye on the Browns’ coaching situation.

9. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints +1800
Bet Value = Low

sean-payton-saintsMany still have good feelings over Sean Payton leading the Saints to a championship in 2009. But these feelings are starting to subside because the team has gone 7-9 for three straight years.

Payton still has future Hall of Famer Drew Brees at quarterback, which always gives New Orleans a chance to win. But the defense hasn’t been good in years.

As long as New Orleans has another mediocre season, then Payton should be alright. The only thing we could see costing him his job is if Brees finally breaks down and the Saints become terrible.

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